Navigating the Presale Real Estate Market in The Greater Vancouver & Fraser Valley

The near-zero interest rates during the COVID pandemic, followed by a sharp uptick in interest rates up to 5% in 2023 has now settled to a middle ground of 2.5% after the Bank of Canada’s announcement to cut a quarter-point on Sept 17, 2025.

This big swing in interest rates has brought unprecedented turbulence in the real estate market. Rapid rise in rates and soaring mortgage payments meant lowered financing power, cooling off the market and prices throughout 2024 and 2025.

What Are The Presale Condo Market Conditions Like Across Canada in 2025?

Over 20% Lower Borrowing Capacity In 2025 Compared to 2021 Affecting Presale Contract Closing

If you put 20% down on a $800k condo, the balance of $640k on a mortgage would have cost you $2,676/mth at a rate of 1.89% back in 2021. In 2025, that same $2,676/mth only gets you a $501.5k mortgage at 4.14% (assuming 25 year amortizations). That means borrowing power has diminished by over 20%. This was much worse in 2023 when the Bank of Canada key rate was 5%, sending mortgage rates well over 6~7%.

With the end of ultra-low interest rates came a different reality. Presale contracts coming up to completion are now facing challenges as the entire loan amount is no longer approved by many conventional lenders. Purchasers who are unable to or unwilling to come up with the difference are looking to sell their units (assignment of contract), even if it means taking a loss. Those who did take possession are enduring mortgage payments far higher than what they had envisioned in 2021.

Where Can A Buyer Get Reliable Sold Price Data and Market Reports on Presale Condo Assignments, if not the MLS®?

Newly built condos in Brentwood saw up to 13% price declines in July of 2025 compared to the previous year, according to BIV.  But this may be only part of the whole story. “Almost all assignments are exclusive listings, as many developers do not give permission to list on the MLS®,” says Lynn LeDrew (Nest Presales / Oakwyn). This makes sales figures unclear, as the real price changes of recently assigned presale contracts may be quite different from what is reported in the condo market as a whole. Adding to this is the fact that monthly sales reports are not released until the beginning of the following month, a few weeks after the transactions are done. This makes it even more critical for buyers to investigate deeper with the help of experienced real estate agents who are negotiating these presale and assignment contracts on a regular basis.

How Different Are The Presale and New Condo Market Conditions When Comparing Greater Vancouver Region (GVRD) to the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)?

The mad rush for condos (both resale and presales) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) was a spectacle indeed, setting record high prices and historically high sale volume in 2021. The 905-area code region saw a 23% annual growth ($1,050/sqft average), while City of Toronto prices saw a 17% leap ($1,429/sqft) year-over-year. That blistering hot market also lead to a frostier cool-off with the hike of interest rates. This story of an investor who bought a 600sqft presale condo for $884k in 2021, and was forced to sell it for $590k in 2025, leaving him with a near-$300k loss (he owes that mortgage to the bank, and does not own the condo at all) is a sobering reminder that presale purchases carry both a massive upside (if the market heats up) and a significant downside (if the market cools down), much like leveraged trading of stocks on margin accounts.

Compared to the 30%+ loss suffered by some Toronto investors, the Vancouver market saw much more stability in the face of higher financing costs. East Vancouver condo prices held at $679,000 in August 2025 to post a -3.7% decrease compared to the previous year, but netting a 5% increase since 2021 ($647,600), while North Vancouver condos averaged $794,800 to endure a mere -1% dip year-after-year while having grown 18% since 2021 ($672,400).

Then, Is 2025 A Good Time To Buy Into A Presale in Metro Vancouver or Fraser Valley?

This depends on your life goals, finances, and real estate investment strategy of course, and there are many factors that can affect the outcome of your real estate investment.

Will interest rates drop further, lowering mortgage rates in 2025 and 2026?

The economic downturn in Canada and the rising unemployment rates are giving many economists the sentiment that interest rates will drop further throughout 2026. Others caution that in order to prevent inflation from rising up again, the US & Canadian feds will be prudent in cutting too much. Economic pundits have proven to be often unreliable, however. The US tariff war spearheaded by the rather volatile President Trump is also a wildcard and offers little predictability of the future. Unpredictable (and not previously documented) global events can change the course of the Canadian economy, as can the rising (or already dominant) superpowers such as China and the rest of the BRICS nations.

In short, economists’ predictions are more hearsay rather than guidance in this rather chaotic world. For the individual real estate investor, the more critical questions should revolve around what he/she can control and manage, rather than try to predict the future with a crystal ball.

How much monthly payments can you afford for this presale condo/townhome? Don’t forget to factor in strata (maintenance) fees!

When considering a presale purchase, it’s important for each buyer to set an upper-limit of payment fluctuations – how much monthly mortgage payments can you afford at the worst-case (highest interest rate probable) at the time of completion? How many years are left until completion? Make sure your Realtor® walks you through the disclosure statements thoroughly and factor in the Strata Fees (maintenance costs) too.

The interest rates at the time of closing can dramatically change your mortgage payments (for better or worse). If the interest rates drop lower at the time of completion, you can enjoy lower monthly payments and/or faster mortgage repayment (good for you!), or potentially sell the unit for a profit (we call this a lift, when you sell a presale contract on an assignment), which leads to the next question:

Will you live in your new condo/townhome, or will you rent it out? Or are you aiming to flip (assign) it?

Consider the main goal of your purchase, and plan accordingly. Living in it means you are responsible for the mortgage and strata fees as your housing costs. If your plan is to rent it out, the rental revenue will go towards the above costs, so make sure you research the rental rates of units like yours and factor that into your price ceiling.

If you are intending to flip (assign) your presale purchase, think of it as a leveraged stock trade on a margin account – the real estate market fluctuation will greatly impact your gain or loss (as seen in above examples). We have a detailed FAQ on purchasing presales and handling assignments here that explains both possible scenarios. Make sure you factor in the potential downsides as well as the upside when you are setting your investment price cap.

Assigning a presale contract carries other costs too. Legal and administrative fees, which one would be charged even for resale, will be $1,000 and up. Assignment fees charged by developers have ranged between 1 to 3%, which will dig into your gains or deepen your losses. Some developers may even reserve the right to change the assignment fees, so make sure your Realtor® covers these fine print details with you. “My client signed the contract at a 2% assignment fee, but the developer is now offering permission at 25% of the total lift, or revert to 2% if there’s no lift. But they are allowing advertising on the MLS®,” remarked Colin Gatward (Nest Presales / Oakwyn) on a recent assignment he handled for a client.

Is the presale project located in a desirable neighbourhood? Would I love living there myself?

“I have dozens of friends from Ontario who dreamed of moving West as they grew up. I saw very few who grew up in Vancouver that dreamed of going to Toronto when they grow up, however,” says Jeff Kee (Founder of Brixwork Real Estate Marketing Inc.). While there are a myriad of factors that drove the two markets into completely different outcomes over the past 5 years, location and desirability remains a core driving factor.

As illustrated in the example of Vancouver and North Vancouver, both highly sought-after areas to live in, location will make a big difference.  Highly desirable neighbourhoods will attract more buyers than other regions even in down-markets, giving you a nicer cushion in case the market dips due to economic conditions.

Analyze possible scenarios from best to worst, and set your price limit accordingly in alignment with your personal finances and income, with robust guidance from Realtors® who have lengthy experience in presale sales and assignments.

Is it a Buyers Market in the Presale Condo/Townhome Sector in Metro Vancouver & Fraser Valley?

East Vancouver’s condo prices saw a 3.7% decline year-over-year in August 2025, compared to a more robust August in 2024 that saw a 47% sales-ratio (SNLR). The Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley as a whole has seen declining sales and higher inventory levels in 2025, in fact. A highly anticipated luxury presale project by Wesgroup was cancelled in the 3rd quarter of 2025, sending a clear signal that the demand for presales is simply not there at the moment.

While there’s no real predicting what will happen next month or next year, the fact remains that the condo/townhome sales numbers are lower in 2025, while inventory is edging higher, which are classic signals of a buyers’ market.

Get On-The-Ground Intel Of the Presale Market From Experienced Realtors® With A Specialty

The Nest Presales team has been committed to connecting presale buyers and reputable developers for almost a decade, offering a wealth of experience, expert guidance on the complexities of the presale and assignment contracts, and reliable market condition reports to help future buyers make better investment decisions. Contact us now to get personal advice on your next presale move!